“Our prisons are on the point of collapse,” new Lord Chancellor Shabana Mahmood said Friday as she set out how the government will stop the impending collapse of the criminal justice system.

The Lord Chancellor explained that if prisons were to run out of places, courts would be forced to delay sending offenders to jail, and police unable to arrest dangerous criminals – a crisis which would leave the public at risk from unchecked criminality.

During her first visits as Lord Chancellor, she met hard-working frontline probation staff before a tour of HMP Bedford and HMP Five Wells and delivered a speech highlighting the dire state of prisons.

In a speech at HMP Five Wells in Northamptonshire, Mahmood said, “When prisons are full, violence rises – putting prison officers on the front line at risk. When no cells are available, suspects cannot be held in custody. This means vanloads of dangerous people circling the country with nowhere to go. 

The police would have to use their cells as a prison overflow, keeping officers off the streets. Soon, the courts would grind to a halt, unable to hold trials. With officers unable to act, criminals could do whatever they want, without consequence. We could see looters running amok, smashing in windows, robbing shops and setting neighbourhoods alight. 

In short, if we fail to act now, we face the collapse of the criminal justice system. And a total breakdown of law and order.”

National Police Chiefs’ Council Chair Chief Constable Gavin Stephens, said, “It is pleasing to see the new government has taken action on this pressing issue so quickly. We are supporting the Ministry of Justice and other partners in the criminal justice system to manage the impact of these changes, particularly around supporting victims, families and others who will be affected.”

With only hundreds of places left in the adult male estate, prisons have been routinely operating at over 99 percent capacity since the start of 2023. Prison cells are now expected to run out within weeks. The Lord Chancellor outlined the challenging but necessary steps the government has been forced to make to prevent their imminent collapse and keep people safe. The Lord Chancellor made clear that the Government must act now to stop this situation from playing out.

Ahead of setting out the next steps to tackle this impending crisis, the Lord Chancellor confirmed that the dysfunctional and unmanageable End of Custody Supervised Licence scheme will come to an end.

Originally launched in October 2023, this early release scheme was brought in to address capacity pressures on the prison estate. Prisoners were initially released 18 days early, but the measure has been repeatedly expanded over the last six months.

Over the course of the scheme, over 10,000 offenders were released. Instead, the government will temporarily reduce the proportion of certain custodial sentences served in prison from 50 per cent to 40 per cent, with important safeguards and exemptions to keep the public safe and clear release plans to manage them safely in the community.

Sentences for serious violent offences of four years or more, as well as sex offences will be automatically excluded, and, in an important distinction from End of Custody Supervised Licence scheme, the early release of offenders in prison for domestic abuse connected crimes will also be excluded. This will include stalking offences, controlling or coercive behaviours in an intimate or family relationship, non-fatal strangulation and suffocation, breach of restraining order, non-molestation order, and domestic abuse protection order.

Anyone released will be strictly monitored on licence by the Probation Service through measures which can include electronic tagging and curfews. They face being recalled to prison if they breach their licence conditions. The new rules will also not apply to most serious offenders, who already either spend two-thirds of their sentence behind bars or have their release determined by the Parole Board.

The Lord Chancellor will set out that the government had no choice but to take this decision.

Mahmood said, “There is now only one way to avert disaster. I do not choose to do this because I want to…. but we are taking every protection that is available to us… let me be clear, this is an emergency measure. This is not a permanent change. I am unapologetic in my belief that criminals must be punished.”

The changes announced today will come into force in September, giving the Prison and Probation Service time to plan for offenders’ release.

The Lord Chancellor also outlined the government’s promise of transparency with a commitment to providing detailed and regular publications of releases under the changes to standard determinate sentences.

In an acknowledgement of the impact on the Probation Service, Mahmood’s first visit as Lord Chancellor was to Bedford Probation Office where she spoke with frontline staff to hear about the challenges they were facing.

Acknowledging these challenges, the Lord Chancellor has also set out plans to recruit over 1,000 additional trainee probation officers by March 2025, allowing for greater oversight and management of offenders once they leave prisons.

During her speech, the Lord Chancellor reiterated her commitment to tackling the prison crisis for the long term. This included clear plans on how prisons can be built quicker by unblocking the planning system and enacting wider system reform and a 10-year capacity strategy will also be published in the Autumn, in line with the Spending Review timeline.

An annual statement on prison capacity will also be published every year, making sure the government is being held to account and must always have the prison places to keep dangerous offenders off the streets. This will make sure the public will never face the situation it is in today again. 

Mahmood added, “The measures I have set out are not a silver bullet but they will give us the time we need to address the prisons crisis, not just today but for years to come. That means continuing the prison building programme. And only by driving down reoffending will we ever find a sustainable solution to the prisons crisis.”